SCB EIC revised Thailand’s 2023 growth forecast to 2.6% due to lower GDP and slow recovery of Chinese tourists. 2024 growth expected at 3.0%, with concerns about slow recovery and uncertainties. The report proposes enhancing policies. Thai policy rate expected to remain at 2.5% throughout 2024. Global economy expected to slow down to 2.5% in 2024. SCB EIC concerned about declining potential growth in the long term and proposes enhancing policies to address structural issues.
SCB EIC Downgrades Thailand’s 2023 Growth Forecast
SCB EIC has revised Thailand’s 2023 growth forecast down to 2.6% due to a decrease in GDP and slow recovery of Chinese tourists. The Thai economy is expected to grow by 3.0% in 2024. However, there are concerns about slow recovery and uncertainties from both external and domestic factors. The report suggests four enhancing policies to address structural issues.
Policy Rate and Economic Growth Expectations
The Thai policy rate is expected to remain at 2.5% throughout 2024 to balance the financial system and control inflation. Additionally, the Digital Wallet scheme may temporarily boost economic growth, leading to increased inflationary pressures. The global economy may slow down to 2.5% in 2024 due to monetary policy tightening and structural factors in China.
Concerns about Long-Term Potential Growth
SCB EIC is concerned about declining potential growth in the long term due to prolonged structural issues and the uneven recovery of households and businesses. To address these issues, the report proposes a set of “four enhancing policies” to boost immunity for households, enhance businesses’ competitiveness, adjust national investment strategies, and ensure the sustainability of Thailand’s real sector. Source link: (https://www.scbeic.com/en/detail/product/9346?rand=55232)
Source : SCB EIC revised Thailand’s 2023 growth forecast to 2.6% and expects 3.0% in 2024